A Conversation with Adam Grant on Why We Need to Think Again, About Students whose identities and ideologies were strongly intertwined (non-flexible thinkers) cracked. Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities with teams of thoughtful a Show EconTalk, Ep Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting - Dec 20, 2015 Prosecutors work well in a courtroom. Group polarization: The phenomenon where we interact with people like us. Its easy to notice when others need to change their opinions, but difficult for us to develop the same habit for ourselves. Western society views happiness at the individual level rather than the communal or societal level (interconnectedness). Ted's Bio; Fact Sheet; Hoja Informativa Del Ted Fund; Ted Fund Board 2021-22; 2021 Ted Fund Donors; Ted Fund Donors Over the Years. (Eds.) Rank and popularity are not proxies for reliability. We distinguish ourselves from our adversariesthey are everything we are not. Psychology and International Relations Theory | Annual Review of He leads Marie-Helene to decide for herself to vaccinate her child. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. In Preacher mode, we share our ideas and opinions as facts, and fail to listen to those of others. Being persuaded is defeat. [1] Part II: Interpersonal Rethinking Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla, famous inventors both, were also, famously, rivals. "Hedgehogs" performed less well, especially on long-term forecasts within the domain of their expertise. Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Ideological Beholder? Open their mind to the possibility they might be wrong and let them work their way to the solution. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Remember: real-life scientists can easily fall into preacher, prosecutor, politician modes too. One of Philip Tetlocks big ideas* is that we are typically operating in one of three modes when expressing or receiving an idea. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. 2006. philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician As in his book, Tetlock describes why a select few people seem to be able to make accurate predictions about the future people he refers to as superforecasters. When our 'sacred' beliefs are in jeopardy, we 'deliver sermons' to protect and promote our ideals. Author recommends twice a year personal checkups: opportunities to reassess your current pursuits, whether your current desires still align with your plans, and whether its time to pivot. In P.E. Start by observing, asking questions, and listening. caps on vehicle emissions). Tetlock, P.E., (2000). Most people believe (wrongly) that preaching with passion and conviction is the best way to persuade others. Grants solution is an idea he calls rethinking. Rethinking is the process of doubting what you know, being curious about what you dont know, and updating your thinking based on new evidence (in other words, the scientific method). Think Again. The power of knowing what you don't know. By Adam Grant This mindset embraces Grants idea of rethinking. I think that we look to forecasters for ideological reassurance, we look to forecasters for . We hesitate at the very idea of rethinking., When it comes to our own knowledge and opinions, we often favor. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Scientist: Grant appends this professional worldview to Tetlocks mindset models. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. The Expert Political Judgements study was run over 20 years in which Tetlock asked a group of pundits to rate three possible outcomes for a political or . Part I: Individual Rethinking Learning from experience: How do experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts)? the concept of good judgment (with special emphasis on the usefulness of forecasting tournaments in assessing one key component of good judgment: accuracy); the impact of accountability on judgment and choice; the constraints that sacred values place on the boundaries of the thinkable; the difficult-to-define distinction between political versus politicized psychology; and. When promoting your idea, you were being a Preacher - arguing your point of view based on a set of prior beliefs. Philip Tetlock - The Decision Lab In environments with psychological safety, teams will report more problems and errors (because they are comfortable doing so). [14] In a 2009 essay, Tetlock argues that much is still unknown about how psychologically deep the effects of accountability runfor instance, whether it is or is not possible to check automatic or implicit association-based biases,[15] a topic with legal implications for companies in employment discrimination class actions. Cognitive bias: Seeing what we want to see. Tetlock's research program over the last four decades has explored five themes: In his early work on good judgment, summarized in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Use a steel man (instead of straw man) and consider your opponents strongest argument. Philip E. Tetlock - Wikipedia Our mini internal dictator. Cons: The pattern of bookending every chapter with an anecdote gets tiresome. System 2 is the familiar realm of conscious thought. Practical tip: Favor content that presents many sides of an issue rather than a singular or binary view. He covers a variety of topics, including the qualities he looks for in a good leader, whether it is becoming more difficult to make predictions about the world, and what we are able to infer from political speeches. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. What are the uncertainties in your analysis? Murray designed a test in which subjects (Harvard students) were interrogated. Tetlocks mindset model is a useful tool. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Chapter 11: Escaping Tunnel Vision. Philip Tetlock is currently the Annenberge University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. Being aware of these can dramatically change the approach we take for ourselves and our audience. Brief (Eds. He argues that most political psychologists tacitly assume that, relative to political science, psychology is the more basic discipline in their hybrid field. Administrative Science Quarterly 45 (2000), 293-326. Defensive bolstering of prior positions? The forecasters were 284 experts from a variety of fields, including government officials, professors, journalists, and others, with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers. Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). Because we have the doubt, we then propose looking in new directions for new ideas. Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox (Ep. 93) Being persuaded is defeat. ebook Price: $69.95/54.00 ISBN: 9780691027913 Published: Sep 8, 1996 Everyone carries cognitive tools that are regularly used and seldom questioned or subject to reflection or scrutiny. Staw & A. Free delivery worldwide on all books from Book Depository As if at some point you become something and thats the end., Kids might be better off learning about careers as actions to take rather than as identities to claim.. The antidote is to complexify by showing the range of views for a given topic. Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live with them and how we must learn to live with them. *These modes run throughout Adam Grants book, Think Again. For THE book on predictions and decisions in the face of uncertainty, see Philip Tetlocks Superforecasting., Your email address will not be published. We routinely fall into one or more of these roles when we engage with others and in our solitary conversations with ourselves. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. 9 Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in (2001). In each of the three mindsets, the truth takes a back seat to other considerations: being right, defending your beliefs, and currying favor. [3] The original aim of the tournament was to improve geo-political and geo-economic forecasting. We risk overemphasizing pleasure at the expense of purpose. This study tried to improve our ability to predict major - Vox Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Although he too occasionally adopts this reductionist view of political psychology in his work, he has also raised the contrarian possibility in numerous articles and chapters that reductionism sometimes runs in reverseand that psychological research is often driven by ideological agenda (of which the psychologists often seem to be only partly conscious). It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning. Quick-To-Read Conversation Starters For The Stubbornly Ambitious. But we rarely question or consider this knowledge which includes beliefs, assumptions, opinions, and prejudices. Such research, he says, can "deepen our understanding of how to generate realistic . If we want to get an idea across or attempt to change someones mind, our best bet is to first understand the lay of the land and the roles everyone is playing. The concept of superforecasters was developed by The Good Judgment Project and is arguably their best-known discovery. Relationship conflict: Personal feuds and arguments (e.g. Search for truth through testing hypotheses, running experiments, and uncovering new truths. Think about how this plays out in politics. In practice, they often diverge.. [29][30] In this view, political actorsbe they voters or national leadersare human beings whose behavior should be subject to fundamental psychological laws that cut across cultures and historical periods. Im a fan of Adam Granthes a good writer and fun to readbut Think Again isnt his best effort (I much preferred Give and Take and Originals). Changing your mind is a sign of moral weakness. Perspective-seeking is more useful than perspective-taking. Princeton University Press, 2005. Why pundits and experts are so bad at predicting the future Intelligent management of intelligence analysis: Escaping the blame game by signaling commitment to trans-ideological epistemic values. Good teachers introduce new thoughts, but great teachers introduce new ways of thinking., Education is more than the information we accumulate in our heads. Parker, G., Tetlock, P.E. philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician. (2006) Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Thinking like a politicianseeking to please otherscan lead us astray. This work suggests that there is an inverse relationship between fame and accuracy. The lesson is that he lacked flexibility in his thinking. His career has had a major impact on decision-making processes worldwide, as his discovery of superforecasters has enabled him to uncover the attributes and methodologies necessary for making accurate predictions. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. By Philip Tetlock Tetlock: The current project is supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency of the US government -- and it is the most systematic effort, to date, at testing the effectiveness. The second part explores how to encourage and influence other individuals to engage in rethinking. Counterfactual thinking: considering alternative realities, imagining different circumstances and outcomes. Over the course of his career, Tetlock noticed that people spend a lot of time making judgments and decisions from three distinct 'mindsets': a preacher, a prosecutor, or a politician.. black and white) leads to polarization, but presenting issues as complex with many gradations of viewpoints leads to greater cooperation. Opening story: Luca Parmitano, Italian astronaut who visited the International Space Station in 2013. Opening story: Orville and Wilbur Wright and the chemistry the two brothers had as intellectual partners. Tetlock has advanced variants of this argument in articles on the links between cognitive styles and ideology (the fine line between rigid and principled)[31][32] as well as on the challenges of assessing value-charged concepts like symbolic racism[33] and unconscious bias (is it possible to be a "Bayesian bigot"?). 1993-1994 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford. How Can We Know? Prosecutors: We attack the ideas of others, often to win an argument. This is the mindset of the scientist. Reply to symposium on Expert political judgment: How good is it? Optimism and. After seeing Earth from above, their perspective changes and the see the commonality of our existence. (2004). (2011). The others might not agree with those arguments, but they are left defenseless and bitter. Philip E. Tetlock is the Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Democracy and Citizenship, Professor of Psychology and Professor of Management. When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Phil Tetlock's (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. Task conflict can be beneficial and generate better outcomes. philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician The Tricky Psychology of Holding Government Accountable - The Atlantic Posing questions and letting the other person draw their own conclusions is more powerful than trying to give them your answer. Affirming the persons desire and ability to change. Enjoyed the inclusion of visuals: humorous cartoons, diagrams, and charts. Youre expected to doubt what you know, be curious about what you dont know, and update your views based on new data.. This book fills that need. Richard Feynman (physicist): You must not fool yourselfand you are the easiest person to fool.. So too do different mental jobs. Totalitarian ego: Psychological term for the mental gate-keeper that keeps threatening information out of our heads. Psychological Review, 109, 451-472. Challenge network: A trusted group of peers to point out blind spots and errors in our thinking. Values are core principles like excellence, generosity, freedom, fairness, integrity, etc. Questioning ourselves makes the world more unpredictable. Home; Uncategorized; philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Department of Psychology / Stephen A. Levin Building / 425 S. University Ave / Philadelphia, PA 19104-6018Phone: (215) 898-7300 / web@psych.upenn.edu, Welton Chang [Psychology Graduate Student], 2023 The Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania, https://psychology.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/Tetlock%20CV%20Updated%20feb%202%2. As Prosecutor, we automatically attack any ideas that don't f Essentially, there are three modes, according to Tetlock: Preacher: In Preacher mode, we hold a fundamentally inarguable idea that we will passionately express, protecting it with great devotion. This talk given by Tetlock goes along with his 2015 book,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Taboo Cognition and Sacred Values BACK TO TOP Defining and Assessing Good Judgment My 2005 book, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? The stronger a persons belief, the more important the quality of the reasons or justifications. Opening story: 1959 Harvard study by Henry Murray (psychologist). And it is of paramount importance, in order to make progress, that we recognize this ignorance and this doubt. Resisting the impulse to simplify is a step toward becoming more argument literate.. McCarthy taught her students that knowledge evolves and that it continues to evolve today. How Can We Know? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000):853-870. We constantly rationalize and justify our beliefs. Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. It looks like the CFO was in Prosecutor mode - calling out the flaws in your reasoning, marshalling arguments to prove you wrong and win her case. This research interest led him to discover that the predictions most people including experts make about future outcomes are not usually significantly better than chance. Conventional vs. new views of intelligence: Psychologists find that test takers who second-guess their answers usually have better outcomes with their revised answers. Super-Forecasting. By Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner - Medium 2019 Ted Fund Donors Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergraduate work at the University of British Columbia and doctoral work at Yale University, obtaining his PhD in 1979. The incident was a powerful reminder that we need to reevaluate our assumptions and determine how we arrived at them. Once I'd gotten that framework into my head, I couldn't let it go. Psychological safety is not a matter of relaxing standardsits fostering a climate of respect, trust, and opennessits the foundation of a learning culture.. Moore, D., Tetlock, P.E., Tanlu, L., &Bazerman, M. (2006). He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. There Are 4 Modes of Thinking: Preacher, Prosecutor, Politician, and
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